Election night math

Will it be a long night? How will you know Obama has this thing locked down? Assuming Obama carries Iowa and New Mexico, let's explore the scenarios in the battlegrounds:

1. If Obama wins Pennsylvania and Virginia, it's over. McCain could carry Ohio and Florida and sweep the Rocky mountain states and still lose.

2. If Obama wins Florida, it's over. Doesn't matter what happens in PA or VA or OH.

3. If Obama wins VA and NC, it's over. He could lose PA and still win.

3. If McCain sweeps PA, Ohio, VA, NC, FLA and IN, he should win (a long shot). Obama would have to carry Missouri, Montana, Colorado, and Nevada to eek out a victory.

Conclusion: you'll pretty much know who's won this thing before it ever crosses the Mississippi river. Hell, it might be over before we cross the Ohio river.