The Race Factor in the Border states

Talking Points Memo reader offers an excellent analysis of how race may be playing a role in the Democratic primaries, more so in the border states like Ohio than the deep south.

I was canvassing for Obama in OH from Saturday through Election Day, but I still expected Clinton to win. My reasons were in part anecdotal: Despite working with a solid Obama ground organization, I encountered much starker resistance from older, middle- and working class whites than I had in other places I'd canvassed, namely Maryland and Iowa. But this anecdotal evidence only added to the much more extensive sense of the Ohio electorate I got as the field director on a House race there in 2006.

and this:

In the "border states," though, you have a collision between old patterns of racist sentiments bleeding up from the South and traditions of populism and white working class unionism bleeding down from the Rustbelt North. Ultimately, I think this means that while you may find more out-and-out racists in Alabama or Texas, you're more likely to encounter latent racist sentiment among a broad segment of Democrats somewhere like Ohio or Tennessee.

The million dollar question is how will Pennsylvania respond? From the Appalachians through the Alleghenies, I think you're going to see the racially biased pattern continue (with inner city Pittsburgh being the exception). East of the Susquehanna the pattern will skew more favorably towards Obama. Obama needs to solidify his African American support in Philly and march his way out through the suburban counties, where my horsesense tells me he will find much support. The rest of the commonwealth will really test his persuasive skills. Those blue collar and older voters will be a tough sell. I would suggest a change in tactics. Get on the ground, work smaller rooms, hold some town halls, do some barn storming, maybe a railroad tour or a bus road show. Couple that with hard nosed policy proposals and stir the pot with big rallies on the college campuses and big cities, and he might get the votes he needs. Oh, and hammer Clinton on policy and experience issues. Show no mercy. To win Pennsylvania or at least to keep the margin of loss miniscule, he's got to turn voters away from her.

My gut tells me that if Clinton wins, it will not be as big of a margin as Ohio was. But Obama really has something to prove. A decisive win (say 10 points) would close the book on the Clinton fairy tale. Is it possible? I think so. Probable? Talk to me six weeks from now.