March 4 postgame analysis

I know the delegate math continues to favor Obama, but last night's results in Ohio and Texas will slow his momentum. Clinton's relentless negative attacks are biting. Obama stumbled in the last week. On the stump he has appeared by turns too smugly confident in his inevitability (understandable after an 11 game winning streak), at other times disinterested and slow to respond (could this be campaign fatigue setting in?) He has not counterpunched as sharply as he needs to. He also made the mistake of looking too far ahead, campaigning against McCain before he knocked out Clinton. So some of the blame for his loss should rest on his campaign's shoulders.

He did close a big gap in Texas, to his credit. It's a shame he couldn't eek out a popular vote win. His failure to do better in Ohio has to do with racism. Ohio is a dying state filled with disaffected, scared white voters.

What happened in Ohio and Texas also comes down to money. Clinton ran out of money after Super Tuesday and needed weeks to refill the coffers. She had the bucks to compete strongly in Texas and Ohio, and I see no reason why she wouldn't have enough to compete staunchly in Pennsylvania.

Obama is likely to pick up two more small wins very soon in Wyoming and Mississippi, which should erase whatever delegate losses he suffered last night. He will probably build on his pledged delegate lead.

He has a narrative problem, though. He can't put her away. He can't win a hotly contested big state. That's what they'll say, and the media will crow until you believe it. There is a positive flipside to that narrative: Clinton has won nearly all the biggest states: California, New York, Texas, New Jersey, Ohio, and she's still behind. But I doubt you'll hear that spin.

Pennsylvania figures to be the showdown state. If Obama can't put her away in Pennsylvania, his nomination may be in jeopardy. Pennsylvania might be an uphill climb for him. I expect him to do great in the Philadelphia area and decently in Pittsburgh, but the rest of the state could look a lot like Ohio, and there are a lot of old f*cks in Pennsylvania who will cast for Clinton. Ed Rendell was right. A lot of people won't vote for the black guy. A shame, but it's true. I would love my state to deliver the deciding blow, but I can't guarantee it.

The coming weeks will test Obama's mettle. Can he counterattack? Can he rewrite the narrative? Can he change the tempo of his campaign?

Obama needs to revisit some themes he was hitting on a while back: the politics of the past vs. the politics of the future. He needs to say to the electorate, is this the polaring kind of shit you want for the next four years? Mud slinging, smear jobs, bogus ads, obstructionist nonsense, inside politics? Beyond that, he also needs to prove to the Democrats something that Hillary has been trumpeting about herself -- that he's a fighter. He needs to slay the Clinton dragon before he can move to Darth McCain. This will require some political muscle, and a willingness to engage in hand to hand combat. He will have to remind voters why Clinton would be a disastrous candidate. He needs to be the man of steel. Indestructible. Find your inner angry black man, Barack. You're going to need him now.

I really think if Hillary claws her way to the nomination, the Democratic party will be bloodied, disheartened, and utterly disengaged in the general election. Many Obama supporters will simply walk away in disgust. John McCain's viability will soar. Think about it. He'll destroy Clinton in the debates on national security, defense, the Iraq War, legislative leadership, and a willingness to compromise. He'll have the advantage suddenly of not being a Bush and not being a Clinton, and those who don't like dynastic rule will have to give him a long hard look. He'll be the outsider in the race, and he'll sweep the independent vote. The swing states could break his way. He'll be deemed the more experienced candidate at the same time as being the better "can do" change agent.

Should Obama survive and win the nomination, he will have been so bloodied by the negative attacks that his chances for success are diminished. He will cross the finish line wounded, with arrows in his back.

Nothing gives me confidence that the Democrats can figure this out. They've consistently blown elections. In 1984, Gary Hart was the candidate with new ideas and he was sidelined by Walter Mondale, a pure politics of the past has been, and he was slaughtered by Ronald Reagan. In 1988, the better candidate Joe Biden was smoked out of the race on a lame plagiarism charge by the anemic Mike Dukakis, who was ripped to shreds in the general election by George Bush. In 1992, the Democrats nominated Bill Clinton, a better candidate to be sure, but one who never won a majority in either three-way election, and who won by caving into Republican values and by losing his majorities in congress. It took more than a decade to repair the damage. In 2000, Al Gore ran an awful campaign, in part because he had to deal with Clinton's sullied legacy, making that election much closer than it should have been. (Bill Bradley would have been the fresher face in that election). In 2004, John Kerry somehow ended up the nominee, and promptly allowed himself to be swiftboated away. A 2008 Hillary Clinton candidacy will energize the Republicans, alienate the independents, and dishearten the young voters. A recipe for disaster.

This year, the Democrats had a chance to ride the wave of change with a smart, charismatic, inspirational, strong, principled nominee. They could have nominated Beowulf. Instead they might end up with Grendel's mother.

Whoever wins the general election (Obama, Clinton, McCain) is going to inherit a country in serious decline. In this sense, the rustbucket state of Ohio is symbolic of the country at large (the title belleweather is too euphemistic). We're going down the tubes. The housing crisis will take years to settle out. Banks will fail. Personal bankruptcies will soar. The price of basic commodities like oil, gas, bread and milk, will continue to inflate. Unemployment will go up. The nation is upside down. The war in Iraq will drag on thougtlessly for years. Healthcare costs will go up while quality of care will go down. The schools will teach to the test. And television will stupify the rest. The roads, bridges, railroads, water lines, and sewers will crumble. And no one will believe in the capacity of government to be part of the solution. We will yammer about tax credits and tax cuts and the infinite wisdom of market-based solutions, while we spin and twist helplessly down the toilet chute of history.

It would be nice to believe in the audacity of hope. But the Clintons have told us that's a fairy tale, a pipe dream, just some speech. I hope they're wrong (there's that pesky word hope again), but maybe they're right. They are, after all, baby boomers. And aren't baby boomers always right? Maybe our political system is too crass, too bought and sold to be reformed or inspired. We're not large enough as a people. We are not people of character. We're a nation of small minded, greedy bastards, feckless and afraid. And the country will yet again receive the kind of disastrous leadership it deserves. Allow me a tip of the top hat to Ohio for showing us the way....