Getting to know Barack

So Obama is doing what I thought he should be doing a few blog posts ago:

Obama needs to solidify his African American support in Philly and march his way out through the suburban counties, where my horsesense tells me he will find much support. The rest of the commonwealth will really test his persuasive skills. Those blue collar and older voters will be a tough sell. I would suggest a change in tactics. Get on the ground, work smaller rooms, hold some town halls, do some barn storming, maybe a railroad tour or a bus road show. Couple that with hard nosed policy proposals and stir the pot with big rallies on the college campuses and big cities, and he might get the votes he needs. Oh, and hammer Clinton on policy and experience issues. Show no mercy. To win Pennsylvania or at least to keep the margin of loss miniscule, he's got to turn voters away from her.

My sense is that, anemic bowling skills aside, his charm offensive is working. As Pennsylvania voters get used to the man, see that's he not a Manchurian candidate, an empty suit, but a level-headed, intelligent, principled candidate, they will begin to lean his way. For the first time, I'm thinking he has a shot in this state. He has plenty of time to close the gap, and Clinton's slipping down the credibility slope, thanks to her Bosnian embellishments.

You can't underestimate the Bob Casey endorsement. It will play very well in upstate and Western PA, where Barack needs to make serious inroads. I'm not convinced that the Rendell endorsement is going to help Clinton all that much, aside from the obvious institutional advantages. Rendell's base of support is Southeastern PA, which should go strongly toward Obama. He's not nearly as popular in the rest of the state, which has a longstanding bias against Philadelphia. So the Rendell endorsement might work against her to some degree. Just saying it's not an automatic advantage.

Obama should not give up on this state. It is winnable. It is not Ohio (as I have maintained already), and he has time to close the deal. By all appearances, the campaign has weathered the "guilt by association" storm and is back to work in a big way. I'm impressed by their discipline and street smarts. They never panic. In PA, they've been quietly registering voters in bunches. Now, they're kicking it into third gear. Obama looks refreshed, sober, and serious about getting this thing done. I'd be shocked if the polls don't start moving significantly after this week. By the time of primary week, I expect to say gigantic rallies in the major cities.

He shouldn't gamble it all on Pennsylvania. Hedge some bets for North Carolina, Indiana, and the remaining contests. But he should go for a knockout blow. It could happen, and I'd be proud to say my state delivered the stake to the heart of the Bush-Clinton era, one of our most shameful political generations.

One final note: I think the keys to victory in Pennsylvania are the cities beyond the suburban rim of Philly: Allentown, Reading, Harrisburg, and Lancaster. If Obama can win over those cities, he'll cruise in Pennsylvania. It won't be easy, but it looks like Obama is going to force Clinton to wage all out war in PA, which could bankrupt her campaign headed into the final round of states.