The significance of Maine

Obama continued his winning streak today by taking the Maine caucus handily. I thought it might be closer than it was. Obama's been mopping up with caucuses all season, but New England has been difficult turf for him, Clinton having edged him out in New Hampshire and thumped him in Massachusetts and New York. Obama was able to eek out a close win in Connecticut on Super Tuesday. So although he had the caucus advantage, I thought Clinton might be able to slow down his momentum tonight. She should have done better. She failed. Dismally. For the first time this season, we can say that one candidate has the wind at his back. Expect to see big victories next week in the Potomac primaries of Maryland, DC, and Virginia. The question right now is going to be, how lopsided they will be.

The Clinton campaign is bleeding badly. Today she replaced her campaign manager. How does she get back on her feet? She really should try to compete in Wisconsin, which comes before the big Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island, Vermont primary, if only to make it close somewhere. The dominoes are falling, and it will be hard to persuade many superdelegates in the face of all those losses. But my read on it is that the Clinton's are ceding way too many contests in the style of Rudy 911, standing down and banking on the big states down the road. Is the campaign running out of money, out of enthusiasm? If Obama can keep his streak alive and pick off Maryland, DC, Virginia, and Wisconsin, going into March 4 I think he has an excellent shot at winning Texas and possibly Ohio. Momentum counts for something in politics, just as it does in sports. Clinton's immediate challenge is how to change the momentum, but I don't see it happening unless she pull an upset in Wisconsin. By March 4, it might already be too late.

Watch to see how the polls move in the coming week or so in Wisconsin, Texas, and Ohio. If you see a big bounce to the Obama side, March 4 could mark the end of the Clinton era in national politics.