Potomac primary analysis

Another drubbing for Hillary in DC, MD, and VA. It wasn't even close, and the tea leaf reading experts detect an erosion in her base of support. Obama's building a larger coalition as he ascends Mount Nomination. Couple these un-spinnable facts with staff shakeups in the Clinton campaign, and you can't help but detect the whiff of defeat in the air. That being said, the Obama campaign would be foolish to assume anything is wrapped up. It does look as if Clinton is all but conceding Wisconsin (why jump ahead to a rally in El Paso last night), which I think is a mistake, because she needs to scrape for every vote in every state to somehow slow the momentum building against her. I still don't know how she can turn it around, which is why you have to think Obama's going to pick up two more states next week -- Wisconsin and Hawaii, and head into March 4 with a major head of steam.

Right now, the major ally for Clinton is time. There's a couple weeks of news cycles to fill and a televised debate in Texas to score some points and make inroads. She's going to have to hope for change -- change in attitudes about Obama as the country catches its breath and takes a second look at the guy. She has to hope for change in the Obama campaign, that they will get overconfident, gloating, look too far ahead. That the Obama minions will get complacent. That the media will decide take a more critical look at him now that he's been declared the front runner. That he won't be able to back up his impressive style with substance. The stars are going to have to cross if she's got any shot at climbing back into the race. At this point, both Texas and Ohio are in play, and Obama has a serious shot at knocking her out. Conventional wisdom in the mainstream media is now saying that even Clinton wins in those states might not be enough, unless they're big wins. I don't entirely agree with that analysis, for the record. If Obama should lose Ohio and Texas, the nomination is thrown back into question.

Last night's speeches should not instill any confidence in Clinton's ability to scrape her way back into this contest on her own merits. Taking flowers from a tired hispanic boy in a spangled gaucho costume while a longwinded local pol spends 15 minutes introducing you, and you stand there waiting and waiting and waiting isn't going to gain you much momentum. Clinton's stumping is earnest but belabored. Her speeches are little more than laundry lists of policy positions, high in caloric content but low in seasoning. There's no poetry here. No spice. It's like eating warmed over refried beans.

Do not discount the possibility of a major "go negative" campaign against Obama. This will probably be executed by surrogates and guns for hire. How they go negative will be key. It's difficult to sharpen the differences with someone more or less in agreement with you on policy.

IN the final assessment, I don't see any tactical solution to Clinton's problems. What she needs to pray for is a mistake on the other side, for Obama to say something unbelievably stupid, like "I'm glad the ho and her pimped out bitch daughter aren't getting the nomination!" Or a major discovery, like Obama's really a Satan worshipper. Or he's being funded by Saudi oil interests. Or he's having an affair with a 15 year old midget on the good ship monkey business. Short of major revelations like that, I don't see a turnaround in the cards.

But there is time, and there is a chance that the electorate will take a second look, and a chance that on sober reflection they will want to pick the more "experienced", insider candidate to be their agent of change. It's a tough sell, and if you wanted somebody really experienced, why didn't Joe Biden or Chris Dodd get traction this season? It's not a winning argument in this cycle.

The word coming out of the Obama campaign last night was encouraging for those of us who support his candidacy. They are worried about flying too high, getting drunk on victory. They expect the anti-aircraft fire. They know it will come from the Republicans, the Clinton mercenaries, and the press. And they also I think are aware that Obama needs to evolve his campaign message. You don't want to just keep blabbing about change to the point of hollowness. He needs to start laying out some sensible policy positions to counter the argument that he's all hat and no cattle. IF I heard the report last night correctly, he's got a major economic policy speech planned today. That's exactly the direction he needs to go.