March 4 primary calculations

Barring any unforseen bomb blasts, scandals, or tsunamis, I think it's likely that Obama wins Texas and/or Ohio. If they are double-digit blow outs, and Obama runs the table again, here's what's going to happen: the outlying uncommitted big fish in the party will line up behind Obama. When you see people like Edwards, Biden, Richardson, Dodd, and others endorsing him, the pressure on Clinton to fold will be insurmountable. This will be her exit cue. She'll know the superdelegtes can't be bought off.

Should Clinton eek out a win in one of the states, what then? Count the delegates. If Obama substantially builds on his pledged delegate lead anyway, the endorsement dominoes might fall anyway in his favor. The party insiders are not going to want a protracted primary battle deep into the spring. That's why I got the vibe in the debate that Clinton may be jonesing for a VP invite. And I'm starting to think it might be a good ticket. It would unify the party. Clinton is a disciplined campaigner. She's good at staying on message, and it would be a history-making ticket for anyone seeking tangible change. If Clinton does indeed lose Texas and Ohio, look for stories about backchannel negotiations on the VP question. She still has bargaining power, and she can say to Obama, look, you want me out of the race? Here's my price.....