Dem primary analysis

I expect Obama to roll up nearly all the states this weekend and into next week. If he stumbles in any of them, it's going to be a blow and expect Clinton to be in comeback mode. Evidence shows Clinton is gearing for a challenge in Virginia or Maryland. Assuming Obama sweeps the Chesapeake primaries, we move to Ohio and Texas, where both candidates are in must win situations. Obama really needs to score a victory in a big state to establish his front runner credidiblity. Clinton needs to win both Ohio and Texas to save her candidacy. Odds favor Clinton at this point, and it will be very interesting to see far Obama can move the numbers when he has a chance to campaign more in those states. After that, Pennsylvania looms large in April. If Clinton takes Ohio and Texas, a victory in Pennsylvania (where she should win), would most likely give her the bragging rights headed into the convention (i.e. Obama can't win in the big states). If Obama can pull an upset, I can't see Clinton recovering. Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania. Those are your key states. In the short term, look to see how well Obama does in Washington, Maine caucusus (can he pick off another New England state, where Clinton has strength), and Virginia (a hard state to read).